Apple should see high demand for its as-yet-unconfirmed foldable iPhone Ultra but will likely struggle to produce enough of them, at least in the short term, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo writes in a Monday blog post.
Kuo, who cites conversations he’s had with “carriers, sales channels and resellers,” expects Apple will only be able to make between 500,000 and 1 million foldables after an anticipated launch later this year.
The disconnect between demand and production will be due mainly to the Ultra’s advanced design, which will likely mean manufacturing challenges similar to what Apple saw with the launch of the iPhone X in 2017, Kuo says. He adds the iPhone Ultra “may be announced alongside the other new models, but with pre-orders and official sales both coming later.”
Speculation and rumors about the foldable iPhone Ultra have been picking up speed in recent weeks, as Apple’s September iPhone launch event approaches. A leaked dummy model shows what would be a smaller design than other iPhones, with some rumors, per MacRumors, suggesting the Ultra will have a 5.5-inch display when folded closed and about 7.8 inches when open, with a wider 4:3 aspect ratio like an iPad.
Apple launched the iPhone X in September 2017 along with the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus (famously skipping an iPhone 9). The 256GB iPhone X was the first iPhone model to have a price tag of more than $1,000 and, the first model to do away with the physical Home button. It also boasted the first all-screen OLED display, and added Face ID facial recognition.
Pre-orders for the 8 models started within a few days of the launch event, but iPhone X pre-orders didn’t start until late October 2017.
The so-called iPhone Ultra foldable is rumored to be one of the phones Apple debuts at its next event — presumably in September — along with iPhone 18 Pro models. (The iPhone Air 2, iPhone 18 and 18e models are said to follow in the first quarter of 2027.) Kuo estimates once it gets production up to speed somewhere near the end of 2026, Apple suppliers will ship between 7 million and 8 million iPhone Ultras this year, and between 20 million and 22 million iPhone 18 models.
Kuo expects the Ultra to sell out “immediately after pre-orders open” despite its anticipated hefty starting price, which he pegs at between $2,299 and $2,499. That’s in keeping with projections from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, who says the foldable iPhone will “cross the $2,000 threshold.”
Last month, Apple sharply increased prices on iPads and Macs, but so far has kept iPhone price tags intact.